Will Russia Build New Typhoon-Class Submarine Replacements or Bigger Submarines?

The Russian submarine fleet, particularly the giant Typhoon-class submarines, has long been a cornerstone of the country's strategic military capabilities. However, as global security dynamics and technological advancements have evolved, the question looms: Will Russia invest in building new Typhoon-class replacements, or consider even bigger submarines?

Modernization Efforts and Typhoon-Class Submarines

As of August 2023, Russia remains focused on modernizing its submarine fleet. One of the key developments has been the Borei-class ballistic missile submarines, which have taken the spotlight in the Russian naval capabilities. Although the Typhoon-class submarines, known for their massive size, were designed during the Cold War, there are currently no definitive plans to build a direct replacement for this class.

The focus on modernization has shifted towards enhancing existing submarine capabilities and developing advanced systems rather than constructing entirely new classes that could surpass the size of the Typhoon-class. Russian emphasis is now on improving stealth missile systems and overall submarine capabilities.

Geopolitical and Technological Considerations

The geopolitical climate and technological advancements play a significant role in shaping any future plans related to submarine construction. With Russia increasingly isolated from Western technology, the ability to produce cutting-edge submarine systems is severely constrained. The existing Borei-class submarines, for example, are about half the size of the Typhoon-class and have a smaller crew and missile complement.

There are economic and strategic reasons to consider why Russia might not pursue larger submarines:

Economic Feasibility: Building a single Typhoon-class submarine would cost around $7 billion, which is approximately 10% of Russia's entire defense budget of $68 billion per year. Such a project would be economically unsustainable. Stealth and Tracking: Larger submarines, even if equipped with advanced stealth technology, are more likely to be detected by modern detection systems, particularly under the ice. This was a significant flaw of the Typhoon-class submarine. Strategic Risk: Concentrating too much into a single, large class of submarines increases the risk of a catastrophic loss. Smaller, more numerous submarines distributed across different classes provide a more resilient and effective fleet.

Current Focus: Borei-Class Submarines

Currently, Russia is building the follow-on class for the Typhoon submarine, the Borei-class. This new class of submarines is smaller, with about half the size of the Typhoon, a smaller crew, and fewer missiles. Six Borei-class submarines are currently in commission and on active duty. This trend towards smaller, more numerous submarines aligns with the current strategic and economic realities.

Potential Future Developments

While there is no confirmatory plan for new, even bigger submarines, it is possible that future developments in submarine technology could explore larger or more advanced designs. However, such projects would need to address the economic and strategic challenges of building and maintaining such vessels.

Geopolitical tensions and technological advancements will undoubtedly influence Russia's future plans for its submarine fleet. For now, the focus seems to be on enhancing stealth, missile systems, and overall submarine capabilities rather than simply increasing size.

As the global security landscape continues to evolve, the debate over Russian submarine construction is likely to remain a topic of considerable interest and scrutiny.