Will Donald Trump Serve Out His Remaining Term? Understanding the Legal and Political Implications

Given the ongoing political and legal climate, it is a matter of discussion and debate whether former President Donald Trump will serve out his remaining term in office. This article delves into the legal and political dimensions of this scenario, including the potential benefits and drawbacks of impeachment proceedings.

Legal Analysis of Impeachment and Removal

The likelihood of Donald Trump serving out his remaining term hinges on legal and political considerations. According to constitutional experts, there is no significant timeline for impeachment and removal proceedings. The Article I, Section 3 of the United States Constitution empowers the House of Representatives to impeach a president and the Senate to try the impeachment.

Even with a functional Senate majority, the removal of a president is not typically swift. Given the historical precedent, no president has faced removal through impeachment in the history of the United States. Moreover, the Senate is highly unlikely to remove a president, especially if they are the minority party. The presence of 51 fellows in the Senate providing interference already seems to support the notion of persistence.

Strategic Considerations and Party Unity

The Strategic calculus behind impeaching Donald Trump involves not only the legal dimensions but also the political implications on the Democratic Party and American democracy as a whole. Democratic leaders face a pivotal decision:

Immediate Impeachment Inquiries: Launching impeachment inquiries can initiate a more robust investigation and provide the Democratic Party with legal authority to demand underlying notes, grand jury testimonies, and call witnesses. Public proceedings can offer clarity on law-breaking and cover-ups, informing the American public and potentially influencing the 2020 election. Actual Impeachment Proceedings: Following the initiation of impeachment inquiries, the House of Representatives must vote on impeachment. Once impeached, the case moves to the Senate for trial. Senate Vote on Impeachment: Professor Lawrence Tribe suggests that the House can choose not to send findings to the Senate, opting instead to vote for impeachment without a Senate trial. This tactic allows Trump to face potential electoral consequences in the 2020 election with the impeachment allegations dragged into his campaign and potentially weakening his chances. Alternatively, sending the case to the Senate would likely result in a not-guilty verdict due to Republican control.

Political Consequences and Risks for Democrats

The decision to proceed with impeachment carries significant risks and rewards for the Democratic Party. If the Democrats choose to do nothing, they face the risk of losing base support. This outcome would lead to a perception of the Democratic Party as ineffective and uncommitted to addressing issues of presidential misconduct.

On the other hand, proceeding with impeachment and facing the outcome carries its own risks. Senator Nancy Pelosi, who leads the Democratic minority, may avoid calling for a Senate trial, fearing that it may backfire. This would be an unacceptable outcome, as the re-election of Trump could indeed spell an 'extinction level event' for the Democratic Party.

Ultimately, the decision rests on whether the Democrats believe the benefits of increased transparency and accountability outweigh the risks of potential electoral ramifications and internal divisiveness.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, the decision to impeach Trump will have lasting implications on American democracy and the balance of power between the legislative and executive branches.