Will Climate Change Flooding Impact Major Cities?

The question often asked, 'What are the chances that climate change doesn’t flood major cities?', comes with a resounding answer: the odds are zero. The increased threat of flooding is not a new concern brought about by climate change alone. Historical records and recent events unequivocally support this conclusion.

Historical Evidence of Coastal Flooding

Similar to the Tin Man’s puzzlement about the ocean’s behavior, the idea that climate change is necessary to cause flooding in major cities is a misconception. Coastal flooding has a long history, with severe storms long preceding the phenomenon of global warming.

The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane caused catastrophic flooding in New York City. According to insurance companies, the damage in 1821 would likely exceed that of Superstorm Sandy if it were to occur today, underscoring the enduring threat. Additionally, storms have relentlessly wreaked havoc on coastal areas, clearing towns and communities from the map.

Case Studies of Flooding Impact

One of the most dramatic examples of flooding in recent memory is Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The storm caused significant flooding and damage in New York City, breaching sea walls in the Wall Street area, which are only three feet higher than king tide. Subways such as the 1, R, and L lines were flooded for over a week, and some still require repair, exemplifying the vulnerability of urban infrastructure.

In 1893, Hog Island in New York was completely washed away, and by 1902, it was no more. The 1938 "Great New England Hurricane", while causing significant damage in Long Island and Rhode Island, did not stay in New York City, emphasizing that even major storms do not always cause the same level of damage in every part of a region.

Insurance and Economic Impacts

Insurance companies have long recognized the increasing risk of flooding in low-lying coastal areas. These regions have experienced increased insurance premiums, indicating a growing concern over the potential for catastrophic damage. Moreover, as sea levels continue to rise, some Pacific islands face an existential threat due to encroaching seawater.

Mitigation Efforts and Their Limitations

Mitigation efforts, such as those implemented in Holland and Venice, can provide some relief. However, the costs are significant, and even if implemented, not all cities may be willing to commit to the expenses. In New York City, the estimate for necessary storm barriers and sea walls ranges from $8 to $12 billion, a sum that may not be feasible given the city’s budget and fiscal constraints.

The expense of replacements, such as the multiple subway tunnels and the Hudson River car tunnels, makes the decision to implement all necessary fixes a complex one. New York City, which accounts for ten percent of the US GDP, faces significant economic considerations in addressing the threat of flooding.

In conclusion, while there is ongoing debate and substantial investment in climate change mitigation, the historical and recent evidence clearly show that the chances of climate change not leading to flooding in major cities are incredibly slim. The continued investment in infrastructure and preparedness is crucial for safeguarding these urban centers.