Will Big Countries Like the UK, France, and Germany Form Their Own Spheres of Influence if the EU Falls?

The European Union (EU) is not a single country but an organization that united a common currency and economy under a shared vision. However, its very existence is now being questioned, much like the American continent's wealth inspired the saying, 'If you can’t beat them, join them.' The recent trend of Brexit and potential future scenarios involve countries like the UK, France, and Germany potentially forming new spheres of influence. This article explores the implications of such a scenario and the current structures of influence these countries already possess.

Current Power Dynamics and the Lack of a Single Country

While the EU is a major player in global affairs, it is not a homogenous bloc but rather a collection of individual states with their unique identities, strengths, and weaknesses. The European Union was established because Europe, notably when compared to the American continent, was perceived as economically less developed. The idea was to unite and strengthen through shared policies and a common currency, leading to the creation of the European Single Market.

In reality, the EU is not a monolith but a consortium of nations. For instance, when the UK leaves the EU, it falls back on historic diplomatic and economic ties rooted in its former empire. Similarly, France, despite not leaving, faces potential shifts in its influence. Germany, meanwhile, might not be isolated but could team up with Russia to form a formidable power bloc, potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Europe.

Future Scenarios: A Europe Without the EU?

If the scenario of a deconstructed EU materializes, the UK, France, and Germany could indeed form their own spheres of influence. The UK, with its extensive historical networks and intelligence capabilities, already has a noteworthy sphere of influence. France, with its smaller empire, has its own sphere of influence. Germany, albeit with a smaller empire, has significant regional and economic clout. Russia could also potentially become a significant player, aligning with Germany to counterbalance Western influence.

The economic and political structures of these countries are already built to project influence both within and outside the EU. For example, the UK has maintained global connections through its old empire and has a comprehensive intelligence network. France has smaller but still significant territories, and Germany's cultural and economic influence in Central Europe is undeniable.

The Potential for European Power Realignment

Given that successful economies tend to become centers of influence, it is plausible that the UK, France, and Germany, individually or in conjunction, could indeed establish their own spheres of influence if the EU were to disintegrate. This realignment could lead to a reconfiguration of power in Europe, with the UK, France, and Germany potentially aligning with different partners or alliances, including Russia. Such a scenario would significantly impact global geopolitics and economic policies.

The reality is that the potential for spheres of influence already exists, even now, and the EU's future is far from certain. Whether the UK, France, and Germany continue to operate within the EU framework or forge new alliances remains to be seen. The dynamics of international relations and the balance of power are always evolving, and the outcomes of these scenarios are likely to be shaped by a combination of economic, political, and strategic interests.

Therefore, while the idea of the UK, France, and Germany forming their own spheres of influence is not just a theoretical possibility but a practical one, the exact contours of this new landscape will depend on various factors, including domestic politics, global events, and the decisions of other major players on the world stage.