Will Apple EVER Release a New Mac OS Version for x86-Based Processors?

As of August 2023, Apple has transitioned its Mac lineup to use Apple Silicon, specifically the ARM-based M1, M1 Pro, M1 Max, M2, and M2 Pro chips. This shift marks a significant change from the x86 architecture previously used in Macs. While Apple has not explicitly stated that it will completely abandon x86 support, the focus on Apple Silicon suggests that future versions of macOS will be primarily optimized for ARM architecture.

However, the latest releases, such as macOS Ventura (released in October 2022) and subsequent updates, continue to support Intel-based Macs. This indicates that existing x86 Macs will still receive updates for the foreseeable future. If you are asking about new macOS versions specifically designed for x86 processors, it is unlikely that Apple will develop new features or optimizations exclusively for that architecture. Future macOS releases might still run on x86 for compatibility, but the emphasis will be on enhancing performance and capabilities for Apple Silicon.

Speculations and Public Perception

Based on how Apple handled this transition before, we can reasonably predict that they will get one more OS that runs poorly on Intel Macs and then abandon the platform. There is a slight chance that Apple might be forced back to x86 due to performance issues with their ARM processors.

Public perception has shifted significantly in light of the performance claims made by Apple. Many users are now realizing that the ARM performance was more marketing than reality. Apple managed to focus on meganumbers (NM) before other semiconductor companies, such as Intel, which can pack exponentially more transistors. The M1 Max has 57 billion transistors, while Intel only had 8 billion. This is the actual reason why the M1 Max looked competitively performant, but it was through a form of slight of hand.

Intel's Performance Superiority

I've been saying this from the start of Apple's ARM marketing push. In less than a year, Intel has proven my point. Alder Lake has less than half the transistors as the M1 Max, it's half the die size yet it 'smokes' Apple's best CPU. It's not even on 5nm yet, imagine when it gets NM parity. This performance disparity should be so embarrassing that Apple might be forced into switching back to x86. For now, Apple hopes they can keep ahead of the curve, crossing their fingers they get to 3nm before other players make it to 5nm, which will help keep the ARM mirage going.

The Apple feedback bubble will continue to fall as Intel and AMD catch up and surpass Apple in lithography. In the meantime, Apple is realizing that ARM is not as performant when compared to x86 enjoying lithography parity. Apple is now looking at developing their own instruction set, starting with RISC-V.

Apple’s Strategy and Future Outlook

RISC-V High Performance Programmer - Careers at Apple is a testament to Apple's efforts to develop a more efficient, high-performance instruction set. If Apple can manage equal performance per transistor as x86, it will likely be due to much higher percentages of complex instructions. Yes, ARM and x86 both have complex instructions, but if Apple cannot compete in terms of performance by leveraging superior lithography and equal performance per transistor, they may have to go back to Intel or AMD, or both.

Conclusion

The transition to Apple Silicon marks a significant shift in Apple’s Mac lineup, with a strong emphasis on ARM architecture. While Apple might release one more x86-based OS, future versions are likely to be optimized for ARM. Apple faces significant pressure from Intel and other semiconductor companies, which means that in the long run, their choice of architecture will be driven by performance and market demands.

Related Keywords

Apple macOS, x86 processors, ARM architecture