Why Could the Su-30 MKI Fail to Shoot Down the Pakistan F-16 During a Dogfight in 2019?

During the aerial engagements in February 2019, specifically during the Balakot crisis, the Indian Air Force’s Su-30 MKI failed to shoot down a Pakistani F-16 fighter. This incident shed light on several factors that could have contributed to the outcome. This article will discuss the various elements that played a role, providing insights into the complex nature of aerial combat.

Combat Environment and Engagements

The dogfight occurred in a complex environment with multiple aircraft and potential distractions. The presence of other aircraft and ground threats can complicate targeting and decision-making. This adds a layer of complexity to the engagement, making it difficult to achieve the desired outcome.

Situational Awareness

The F-16 may have had an advantage in terms of situational awareness due to its operational tactics training and possibly the use of more advanced electronic warfare systems. This enhanced awareness could have allowed the F-16 to better predict and counteract the Su-30 MKI’s tactics, potentially reducing the effectiveness of any engagements.

Engagement Rules and Tactics

The engagement rules and the tactics employed by the Indian Air Force during the conflict may have influenced the outcome. If the Su-30 MKI was not in an optimal position or had to adhere to specific engagement protocols, this could have limited its effectiveness. The engagement rules and tactics played a crucial role in determining the course of the battle.

Aircraft Capabilities and Missile Performance

While the Su-30 MKI is a highly capable multirole fighter, the F-16 is also a proven aircraft with good agility and combat capabilities. The outcome of air-to-air engagements can depend significantly on pilot skill, tactics, and the specific conditions of the fight.

Pilot Training and Experience

The experience level of the pilots involved plays a crucial role in air combat. The training, tactics, and decision-making abilities of the pilots can significantly impact the outcome of such engagements. Experienced pilots are better equipped to handle the complexities of aerial combat, making their decisions more effective and timely.

Missile and Weapon Systems

The effectiveness of the missiles and weapons used during the engagement also matters. If the Su-30 MKI’s weapons systems were not used optimally or if there were technical issues, this could have affected its ability to engage the F-16 successfully. The importance of missile performance and weapon systems cannot be overstated in determining the outcome of an aerial engagement.

Types of Engagements and Comparison

In the specific incident in 2019, the engagement was not a traditional dogfight. Instead, it was a BVR (Beyond Visual Range) engagement where the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) fighters fired several AIM-120C missiles from their maximum range (about 100km). Meanwhile, the Su-30MKI’s R-77 missiles could only reach a maximum range of 80km. Due to this range disparity, the Su-30MKI was unable to engage effectively.

Practical Implications of Missile Ranges

Unless the target is a heavy aircraft such as an airliner, bomber, tanker, or AWACS, the AIM-120C is far outside its No Escape Zone (NEZ). The longest confirmed kill achieved with AIM-120C was against a Serbian MiG-29 with no radars, IRST, or electronic countermeasures. Even then, it took 5-6 AIM-120C missiles to achieve a kill, and the MiG had to exhaust its energy to avoid being hit.

The Su-30MKI encountered some success in jamming a portion of the incoming missiles and dodging the rest, which were in a ballistic flight path. Had the Su-30MKI been armed with the Meteor BVRAAM, the F-16 would have been “miserably scorched,” given its extended range and better performance. The NEZ of Meteor can exceed 100km, but for the Su-30MKI, integration could involve limiting factors like radar types.

Lessons Learned and Future Enhancements

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has taken measures to avoid such situations in the future. HAL integrated the Israeli I-Derby-ER, which offers better performance than AMRAAM, and replaced the R-73 with the French MICA-IR. These changes aim to improve the Su-30MKI's capabilities.

However, Russia’s reaction to these integrations was negative, as they were not approved by Sukhoi. Despite this, the Russians have proposed the extended-range R-77-1 for India. For long-term enhancement, the ideal would be to upgrade the Su-30MKI with advanced AESA radar, improve missile performance, and possibly replace its engines with Safran M88 for better performance and fuel efficiency.