When Will Diesel and Gasoline Engine Production Cease Entirely?

As the automotive industry increasingly shifts towards electric and hybrid vehicles, the question of when the production of diesel and gasoline engines will come to a complete halt has garnered significant attention. This shift is driven by a combination of environmental concerns, technological advancements, and regulatory pressures. However, the timeline for cessation varies widely among auto manufacturers.

Auto Manufacturers Commit to Cessation of Gasoline and Diesel Production

Several prominent car manufacturers have already set timelines for the cessation of gasoline and diesel engine production. Mini announced in March 2023 that its last internal combustion engine (ICE) model will be launched in 2025, transitioning to fully electric models thereafter. By 2027, half of its model range will be electric, with the entire range moving to EV-only by the early 2030s. ([Learn More])

General Motors plans to fully phase out ICE vehicles by 2035, reflecting their commitment to sustainable energy solutions. ([Learn More])

In April, Honda's company president Toshihiro Mibe announced that by 2040, Honda’s entire global line-up will be either battery electric or hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV). ([Learn More])

Jaguar Land Rover has also committed to transitioning its Jaguar brand to all-electric by 2025. ([Learn More])

Fiat CEO Olivier Francois announced that the Fiat line-up will gradually become electric only between 2025 and 2030. ([Learn More])

French automaker Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi has pledged to make all of its cars on sale in Europe electric by 2030. ([Learn More])

The Feasibility of EV Resource Harvesting

One criticism of the shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) is the feasibility of sourcing the necessary raw materials. A significant 250,000 EVs would require 30 years of production from a single mine, with these resources being depleted within just 10 years. Furthermore, recycling of these materials is currently not viable, raising questions about the sustainability and practicality of this approach. ([Learn More])

Battery Anxiety and Economic Viability

Another prevailing concern is the issue of "dead battery dead car anxiety," a phenomenon similar to the fear of running out of gasoline in a traditional car. This is especially relevant given that long-range EVs are not yet common and charging stations are not universally accessible. This issue may take a long time to resolve, as the necessary infrastructure development and public acceptance can be slow. ([Learn More])

The economics of electric over-the-road (OTR) trucks are also questionable. Class 8 diesel OTR trucks require near-constant operation, sometimes running up to 24/7 with team drivers. Switching to electric OTR trucks would need extensive battery capacity and rapid charging infrastructure, both of which are currently far from feasible. ([Learn More])

Consumer Choice and Market Demand

Ultimately, the production of gasoline and diesel engines will cease when there is no longer enough demand for them. Auto manufacturers are responsive to market trends and consumer preferences, and they only produce what sells. Given current market dynamics, it is likely that the complete cessation of these engine types will not occur within the near future. ([Learn More])

Long-Term Considerations for Battery-Powered Heavy Machinery and Transport

Beyond personal transportation, the shift towards battery-powered heavy machinery, such as tractors, bulldozers, and aircraft, remains a distant prospect. There is no technological advance on the horizon that can match the energy density of hydrocarbon fuels in heavy and continuous-duty applications. As such, these sectors will continue to rely on traditional engines for the foreseeable future. ([Learn More])

While the transition towards electric vehicles is inevitable, it will be a gradual process that will take decades to implement fully. The shift from gasoline and diesel engines to electric powertrains is a significant challenge that requires advancements in battery technology, infrastructure development, and a fundamental shift in consumer behavior. As the industry moves forward, it is important to consider these challenges and work towards sustainable solutions.

Summary

The transition from gasoline and diesel engines to electric vehicles is happening but will not be complete in the near future. While several major manufacturers have set clear timelines, the overall industry shift will take place over decades. Factors such as resource availability, consumer anxiety, and economic considerations all play a role in this transition. As we move forward, it is crucial to address these challenges and continue to innovate in battery technology and infrastructure. The future of automotive powertrains is electric, but the journey towards a fully electric future is long and complex.

References

[Learn More] Mini Announced: [Learn More] General Motors Phase Out: [Learn More] Honda Electric Vehicle: [Learn More] Jaguar Electric: [Learn More] Fiat Electric: [Learn More] Renault Electric: [Learn More] Resource Harvesting: _ [Learn More] Dead Battery Anxiety: [Learn More] OTR Trucks: [Learn More] Consumer Choice: [Learn More] Heavy Machinery: