Introduction

For decades, the United States and Russia have cooperated in space, most prominently through the International Space Station (ISS). However, with the rise of private space companies such as SpaceX and the potential for new partnerships, what would happen if Russia decided to halt its role in the ISS's operations?

The Current Status

Until now, the US and Russia have maintained a mutually beneficial relationship within the ISS program. The U.S. provides money and electrical power, while Russia offers transportation services with its Soyuz spacecraft. However, recent developments, including the success of SpaceX's Crew Dragon and the upcoming Starliner, are changing this dynamic. With these new capabilities, the U.S. is gaining more independence from Russian involvement.

SpaceX Crew Dragon

SpaceX's Crew Dragon has already demonstrated its capabilities by successfully launching two crew members, astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley, to the ISS. This recent achievement marks a significant step towards reducing the U.S.'s reliance on Russia for ISS missions.

Future Plans and Investments

In light of these advancements, NASA is likely to accelerate the progress of SpaceX's Dragon 2 program, potentially moving its first test flight to August and the first manned mission to December 2020. This strategic investment will further diminish the need for Russian Soyuz flights. The accelerated timeline for SpaceX and other private companies reflects the strategic shift in space exploration, with the U.S. prioritizing its own capabilities over dependency on Russian services.

ISS Funding and Future

The U.S. plans to phase out funding for the ISS by 2020. This move suggests a preparation for the eventual decommissioning of the station. Russia, on the other hand, is considering detaching parts of the ISS for a future OPSEK (Oslablenaya Polyus Station) complex, a project aimed at creating a new modular space station. There are existing discussions about how the American and European segments of the ISS might be reused or deorbited altogether.

Plan B: Safe Alternatives

Despite the potential for major changes, both NASA and Russia would work together to ensure a safe and controlled transition. In the event of Russia's withdrawal, the immediate priorities would include the safe return of all crew members and the safe de-orbiting of the ISS. Additionally, NASA would continue to foster a clear and coordinated plan to maintain the safety and continuity of the space station's operations.

Conclusion

The future of the International Space Station remains uncertain as the U.S. and Russia contemplate their roles. While the U.S. is developing its own capabilities, Russia is eyeing future projects. However, any decision to withdraw from the ISS project would involve extensive planning and collaboration to ensure the safety and integrity of the international effort in space.