Could Any of the 3 Unidentified Objects Shot Down by US Fighters Be Amateur Radio Balloons?

Over the past week, US fighters have shot down three unidentified objects floating in the air. My analysis suggests that there is a high probability that at least one of these objects was a balloon launched by amateur radio operators, possibly middle-school students under the guidance of a licensed operator.

The evidence for this theory can be found in the design similarities and the typical behavior of amateur radio balloon launches.

The Similarity of Objects and Design

One of the pico balloons launched by amateur radio operators was photographed prior to launch. Notably, the design of this pico balloon resembles the larger balloon that was reportedly shot down over U.S. territorial waters off the coast of Surfside Beach, South Carolina. This striking resemblance cannot be ignored given the proximity of the events.

Additional sources suggest that amateur radio operators globally regularly launch such balloons and satellites. The likelihood that the shot-down objects could be one of these balloons is therefore significant.

Logical Reasoning Against Other Possibilities

Given a logical analysis, it is nearly impossible to justify that an amateur radio operator would launch an untethered balloon to the altitude of the prevailing jet stream. Balloons at such heights are not practical for serving as lifting points for wire antennas, which are typically lower to the ground.

There is no logical reason for amateur operators to engage in such an action, especially without any specific or identifiable purpose.

Further Investigation Required

At this point, we can only speculate based on the available data and design similarities. The definitive answer will emerge once someone claims the balloons as their own or the debris is retrieved and analyzed.

Furthermore, these objects' tracking data suggests that they may have originated in Asia. Typically, there would be some level of public announcement or press coverage when amateur radio launches occur, which has not been reported in this case.

Until more information is available, the theory that these objects could be amateur radio balloons remains a plausible explanation for their unexpected appearance and subsequent downing.

For more comprehensive and up-to-date information on this topic, it is recommended to follow reputable sources on aviation and airspace security.