The Timeline of Achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

The development of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a topic of great interest and speculation. With advancements in technology, especially in Large Language Models (LLMs), the timeline for AGI is becoming more poignant. However, the precise year or even decade of its emergence remains a matter of debate among experts.

Expert Predictions on AGI

Several notable figures have provided their predictions on when AGI might be achieved:

Louis Rosenberg, CEO and chief scientist of Unanimous AI, predicted that AGI would be achieved by 2030. Elon Musk predicted that AGI could be achieved by 2029. A broader Metaculus census predicted AGI to be achieved by October 2032. According to a survey of around 1700 AI researchers, the majority of participants believed that super-intelligent AGI would be developed before the year 2060.

While these predictions span a wide range, they all agree on one thing: the advancements are happening at a rapid pace, making AGI no longer a distant possibility.

Implications of Achieving AGI

AGI, once achieved, is likely to have profound effects on society. Here are a few considerations:

According to Stuart Russell, a professor at UC Berkeley who teaches AI, AGI would be achieved only if it can: 1. Real understanding of language and world 2. Integration of learning with knowledge 3. Long-range thinking at multiple levels of abstraction 4. Cumulative discovery of concepts and theories Adding economic power, with billions of dollars of investment driven by AGI, the market is estimated to be in the trillions. AGI will potentially displace humans from jobs within five years if it is not human-smart. As AGI grows, the competition for its development will heat up, with some countries even considering shutting down the internet to fear its uncontrollable effects.

Challenges and Concerns

The development of AGI also presents significant challenges and concerns. For instance, ChatGPT cannot provide a definitive answer and can only regurgitate the idea that creating AGI requires a deeper understanding of human cognition and consciousness.

Given these challenges, a scientific wild ass guess (SWAG) would place AGI achieving in about 20 years. This is, however, comparable to other long-term scientific goals that always seem to be 20 years away, such as effective nuclear fusion reactors.

As the world watches and waits, the race to AGI continues, with potential rewards and risks that will reshape our future in unimaginable ways.