The Roadmap to Complete 5G Coverage in the United States

Current State of 5G Expansion

As of August 2023, 5G coverage in the United States has been expanding rapidly, but full nationwide coverage remains a work in progress. Major carriers such as Verizon, ATT, and T-Mobile have made significant strides, with urban areas seeing extensive 5G availability. However, rural and remote areas lag behind.

Timeline for Full 5G Coverage

Predictions for complete coverage vary widely, but analysts suggest that it could take several more years—potentially into the late 2020s or early 2030s—for comprehensive 5G coverage to be realized across the entire country. This timeline depends on several factors:

Infrastructure Development

Building new cell towers and upgrading existing ones is a complex and time-consuming process. The infrastructure backbone required for 5G coverage is extensive and requires significant investment. This process is further complicated by the need for coordination between local, state, and federal governments as well as the telecommunications industry.

Regulatory Approvals

Local regulations and zoning laws can significantly delay the deployment of new infrastructure. These laws may impose additional requirements or restrictions on where and how new cell towers can be built, thereby extending the timeline for deployment.

Investment

The carriers' willingness to invest in rural areas is crucial. The return on investment (ROI) for deploying in rural areas may be lower due to the lower number of subscribers and higher infrastructure costs. Carriers may prioritize investment in urban areas with more subscribers and higher expected revenue.

Comparative Analysis with 3G and 4G

3G and 4G coverage in the United States has been insufficient, with less than 30% of the country being covered. In South Korea, which is often lauded as a world leader in 4G coverage and bandwidth, there are vast dead zones. Experts predict that it may take 4-6 years for 5G to cover the same area that 4G currently covers, and much of this coverage will be in sub-3GHz frequency bands.

ROI and Economic Factors

The issue of ROI or return on investment becomes crucial. Deploying a cell site can cost hundreds of times more than the average revenue per user (ARPU) returns in a year. Investors and shareholders typically expect a 3-year return on their investments and aim to minimize operational costs over the 10-12 year lifespan of a cell site.

Rural and areas over water may eventually have some sort of low-bandwidth coverage provided by satellite. However, I would not expect megabit-plus coverage in areas with low numbers of subscribers.

Conclusion

While urban areas may see near-complete coverage sooner, full coverage across the entire U.S. will take many more years. The comprehensive rollout of 5G will be a challenge that will require significant investment, regulatory coordination, and a strong focus on ROI. As technology continues to advance, the timeline for these efforts may evolve, but the journey to universal 5G coverage remains a critical goal for the U.S. telecommunications industry.