The Presidential Landscape Under Mitt Romney: A Speculative 2012 Election Outcome

Speculating on the outcome of a Mitt Romney presidency in 2012 is an exercise in imagining alternate realities. In the end, Barack Obama’s victory was far more comprehensive, securing 332 electoral votes to Romney’s 206. This comprehensive win was accomplished by Clinton sweeping all but one of the nine battleground states, and just 47% of the popular vote to Obama’s 51%.

Given the speculative nature of such a question, it is impossible to provide an accurate forecast. However, based on Romney’s political stance and strategic outlook, we can offer some educated guesses. Here’s a closer look at how the political landscape might have shifted:

Political Impact of Romney in 2012

My hunch is that gun sales would have been smaller due to a less controversial stance on arms control, and less widespread attempts to scrutinize the White House through political threats relating to healthcare reforms. These hypothetical scenarios might have led to a more balanced political environment without the intense backlash experienced during the Obama presidency.

It’s important to note that: Trump would still be engaging in his signature business practices, Joe Biden would still be retired, and President Hillary Clinton would have been extending her Merry Christmas greetings from the White House, marking her second year in office.

Mitt Romney’s Ideological Alignment

Mitt Romney is classified as a statist, known for ideological flexibility that might veer through various political spectrums over time. Such a leader would likely position his policies to garner broader support, making his administration appear to drift further towards the left while claiming adherence to right-of-center values.

Presidential Reelections

In broad strokes, most presidential terms are followed by re-elections, especially when no major crises arise. This would have meant an open field for the 2016 election with no incumbent. Given that the Republicans had already had two terms in the White House, a Romney presidency in 2012 might have led to a trounced performance for a likely GOP nominee, such as Donald Trump, in 2020 if he chose to run.

The Republican Party might have retained its House majority, but likely wouldn’t hold onto the 33-seat majority it started with in the 113th Congress. John Boehner would have remained Speaker for the 113th and possibly 115th Congresses. The GOP could have lost its House majority in the 114th Congress, but might have regained it in the 115th term due to incumbent coattails benefiting the party’s candidates.

The Senate might have picked up a seat in the 114th Congress, but not achieving a filibuster-proof majority. The real question is whether Romney would have managed a trifecta for the 115th Congress. Given the American preference for divided government, achieving this would be challenging, given the anti-Obama sentiment that might have prevailed.

Foreign Policy and Domestic Issues

On foreign policy, with a focus on Russia annexing Crimea in 2014, Romney would likely have taken a stronger stance than Obama. This would have set a different trajectory for U.S. foreign relations in Eastern Europe, potentially leading to a different outcome by 2016.

Domestically, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) might have continued to be a minor or non-issue for Romney’s term, having the ACA established much earlier during his tenure as governor of Massachusetts. By 2020, the ACA would likely have achieved institutional status.

The 2012 election saw little impact from thexiety surrounding the Affordable Care Act, as it was too close to Romney’s previous governance in Massachusetts. However, by 2020, the ACA would have likely become a familiar and entrenched part of the political landscape, making it a less contentious issue.

On the issue of COVID, a Romney presidency would have likely seen the pandemic play out similarly to how it did under Trump, but without the intense and controversial assertions and misinformation campaigns that characterized the Trump administration.

Obama made no Supreme Court (SCOTUS) appointments in his second term, raising the possibility that if Scalia had died in 2016, the Democratic majority in the Senate would have confirmed a nominee along the lines of Garland. Kennedy’s retirement would likely have still occurred during a Republican presidency, but the idea that Romney would have nominated Brett Kavanaugh seems highly improbable.

Personal and Professional Implications

Mitt Romney, as a reasonably establishment Republican, would have maintained a focus on governing over partisan bickering, especially by the end of a two-term presidency. He would have had a strong economy to campaign on in 2016, making his re-election likely. His second term would have seen a more traditional approach to governance with less reliance on Twitter and talk radio appearances. Scandals would have remained minimal, with a few notable exceptions that were contained.

In summary, while Mitt Romney’s presidency in 2012 would have brought a different set of challenges and opportunities, the overall landscape would have continued to reflect the broader trends of policy and politics. Speculation remains guesswork, but the hypothetical scenario paints a picture of an administration that would have navigated the political waters with a mix of continuity and innovation.