Is Democracy at Risk in Brazil?

No. The Army is behind Lula and Democracy. USA and most countries totally support the Brazilian election result. British big investors will take a hit so listen carefully to BBC as it hints Bolsanaro has more support than he really holds. U.K. is low grade now on moral issues globally and out of sync with EU and USA. The Labour Party still in opposition is however weak on foreign policy, with a money-focused MP as shadow foreign spokesman… a Mr Lammy. He is a rich UK socialist politician of African heritage and not at all doing the right thing by working outside his elected job, which is what Conservatives do when elected. Mrs May, a former short-time Prime Minister of the UK, went plesantizing to the Saudis!! An amazing lack of consistency. It seems politicians, when needing more and more cash, do backtrack.

The Aftermath of the Election: A Silver Lining for Democracy

For months, it appeared that Brazilian democracy had dodged a bullet. Despite President Jair Bolsonaro's warnings about a flawed system and Donald Trump-like threats of unrest if he were to lose the Oct. 30 election, the protests he encouraged seemed to have dissipated. The winner, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was inaugurated on New Year's Day. However, a major setback to democracy occurred in mid-afternoon on Sunday when Bolsonaro's supporters stormed the Three Powers Square in the nation's capital, Brasília, breaching buildings that house Brazil's congress, supreme court, and the presidential palace.

Key Observations: This event resembles the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by supporters of then-President Trump, where:

Thousand of protesters were bused in from around the country, shouting "stop the steal" and demanding the ouster of the new president. Damage was similar, including breaking windows, trashing furniture, and even old paintings in the nation’s most important government buildings. The language and rhetoric of protesters were also starkly similar, declaring, "We always said we would not give up" and "Congress is ours. We are in power." There were allegations of some police standing by as the rampage went on and military being slow to intervene.

Comparison with the January 6, 2021, Insurrection in the US

While order was restored by the end of the day as it was in the US, the key difference is that this event occurred on a Sunday. However, the similarities in scale, rhetoric, and methods used by both groups cannot be ignored. Both events highlight the fragility of democratic institutions in the face of post-election unrest and how such instability can have global implications.

The Impact on Global Investor Sentiment

British big investors are reportedly taking a hit due to the post-election violence in Brazil. This underscores the importance of a stable and predictable legal and political environment for investment. The US and other major global powers, including the EU, are closely watching the situation in Brazil, with many expressing concern over the potential rollback of democratic gains.

Future Outlook for Brazilian Democracy

While the immediate response from authorities, including the military, was prompt and decisive, the long-term implications for democracy in Brazil remain uncertain. The critical question now is whether Lula and his government can maintain a strong democratic mandate and navigate the political landscape without succumbing to the same pressures that led to the January 6 insurrection.

Implications:

It is crucial for the Brazilian government to demonstrate its commitment to the rule of law and protect the integrity of the electoral process. International observers and partners must remain vigilant and offer support to maintain democratic norms and practices. Media organizations should continue to provide accurate information and promote critical thinking among the populace.

In conclusion, while Brazil's recent post-election violence is a significant setback, it is imperative to analyze the root causes and work towards strengthening democratic institutions and practices. The international community must play a supportive role in ensuring that Brazil's democratic journey continues on a stable and peaceful path.