The Likelihood of Brexit Conclusion on January 31, 2020

Introduction

On the verge of its departure from the European Union, the UK is facing a critical timeline with the January 31, 2020, deadline looming large. This article explores the likelihood of this event occurring, considering the political landscape, the current state of negotiations, and the potential implications.

Political Scenario and Likelihood of Brexit

Johnson's new majority in the Commons has significantly altered the political dynamics. The expectation is that the UK will leave the EU on the specified date, albeit with a few caveats. The transition period, unfortunately, is perceived to be too short for a comprehensive trade deal, which means that the UK will likely operate in a 'no-deal' scenario for some time.

Factors Influencing the Outcome

Several factors contribute to the heightened likelihood of a 'leave' decision:

Johnson's Majority: Boris Johnson's Conservative Party holds a substantial majority in the Commons, making it easier for him to push through his delayed 'no-deal' Brexit plan. MP Accountability: Many MPs who voted against the people's will find themselves facing the consequences. The realization that their actions have led to uncertainty may motivate some to reconsider their stance. Post-Brexit Plans: Despite Brexit being a key campaign promise, it's uncertain what the post-Brexit policy would entail. The situation is kept vague, with no clear plan being disclosed to the public.

|Defining 'Conclusion' and Brexit’s Indeterminate Nature

The term 'conclusion' is inherently vague, making it difficult to define when Brexit is 'concluded.' Leavers often resort to unrealistic fantasies to justify their position, but it's clear that whatever happens will not resolve all issues overnight.

Post-Brexit Projections

Several possible outcomes can be predicted based on current political scenarios:

Tory Majority or Hung Parliament: Predictions are challenging, but the latest YouGov polls suggest a working majority that may be easily overturned by a smaller margin. Corbyn's Stand: Jeremy Corbyn's chances of winning a working majority are negligible. However, a decent Tory majority is more likely, although the exact number is difficult to gauge. Referendum Proposals: Some Tories might prefer a second referendum, favoring a 'Remain' win, to settle the issue. A Customs Union deal, although feasible, is generally seen as inferior to remaining in the EU.

Consequences of a 'No Deal' Scenario

A 'no-deal' Brexit scenario would lead to significant economic disruptions. Without a deal, the UK would face:

Economic Ruin: Potential for loss of jobs, reduced trade, and other economic challenges. Trade Deal Negotiations: A long and arduous process, potentially taking decades to achieve trade agreements with other nations. USA Trade Agreement: Any potential trade deal with the USA is unlikely, as the US has already made it clear this will not happen.

The 'no-deal' scenario is politically and economically suicidal, making it highly unlikely that such a decision will be made on January 31, 2020, or any other date.

Conclusion

Given the current political climate and the potential consequences, it is highly improbable that Brexit will be 'concluded' on January 31, 2020. The UK is likely to face further negotiations and a transition period, ensuring that the situation remains unresolved for the foreseeable future.