The Implications of Trump’s Approval Rating: A Closer Look

When we discuss the approval ratings of a sitting president, the stakes can be high and the implications far-reaching. This article explores what might happen if Donald Trump's approval rating were to drop into the single digits and the potential outcomes. The analysis is grounded in historical precedents and the current political climate.

Understanding Approval Ratings

Approval ratings are often seen as a direct indicator of a president's performance and popularity. However, these numbers, as generated by public opinion polls, can also be fraught with challenges. Pollsters are not immune to the same biases and errors that affect any political process, and the credibility of these figures is often called into question.

For instance, historical precedents such as Richard Nixon's resignation on August 9, 1974, provide a stark illustration. Although Nixon's approval rating dropped dramatically to a mere 24%, he had already secured a landslide victory in the previous election with an approval rate of 68%. This drop in popularity did not prevent Nixon from resigning; it was instead driven by a combination of Watergate-related scandals and public pressure, not just a change in approval ratings.

What Happens if Approval Ratings Drop?

If we hypothesize that Donald Trump's approval rating were to hit single digits, the first point to consider is whether this figure would really be taken as a final indicator of his presidency. Pollsters have lost significant credibility in recent years, and a sudden drop in approval ratings would be taken with a grain of salt. People will likely view such a sharp decline through the lens of previous polling scandals and inherent biases.

Historically, there are no solid precedents for what happens when a president's approval rating plummets significantly. The Constitution provides the framework for impeachment, but impeachment requires not just low approval ratings, but grounds that are politically, legally, and ethically significant. It is unlikely that a low approval rating alone would be sufficient to trigger impeachment proceedings.

Political Reality and Resilience

The resilience of President Trump's base provides another layer of complexity. His supporters, despite any decrease in popularity, remain loyal as long as he does not take actions that are deemed egregious against their interests. For example, his statement during the 60 Minutes interview that he would not prosecute Hillary Clinton was seen as a misstep but was largely forgotten by his base.

The political opposition to Trump primarily comes from the left and far-right Never Trumpers. However, the bases of these groups are not monolithic. Those on the left would never support Trump or his policies, even when they unintentionally align with some of his initiatives. Conversely, certain segments of the far-right base are more volatile and may shift their support based on perceived negative events.

Future Elections and Beyond

As we look ahead to the 2020 presidential election, if Trump decides to run for a second term, he will likely maintain a strong presence within his existing base. Primary challenges are unlikely to emerge, as his base remains loyal and devoted. Even those on the far right, who were initially reluctant to support him, might once again vote for him over a Democrat.

The stance of centrists and moderate voters, such as myself, will largely depend on the candidates that the opposing party presents. The dynamics of these groups can shift based on a variety of factors, including the perceived effectiveness of the opposition's campaign and the personal appeal of the candidates.

Ultimately, the approval rating is just one gauge of public opinion. While it can be an important indicator, it is not the sole determinant of a president's fate. Historical precedents and current political realities suggest that a sharp decline in approval ratings might not lead to immediate or drastic changes in the status quo.