The Impact of H1-B Visa Changes Under Trump on American IT Companies

Donald Trump's executive order on H1-B visa changes has sparked considerable debate, but many believe its effects on the American IT industry are limited. Most of the

Impact on the Tech Industry

While there have been layoffs in certain tech sectors, the number of new projects being paused is significant. In the current climate, it is unlikely that there will be a massive influx of new H1-B visa resources in the next six months. Additionally, the tech industry is already struggling to retain existing talent, especially for 2021 when previously on-hold projects are expected to resume. Therefore, it is unlikely that the H1-B visa changes will have a substantial impact on the tech industry's manpower requirements in the near future.

Impact on Job Shipment to Other Countries

One potential impact of the H1-B visa changes is the expedited shipment of jobs outside the USA. With the widespread adoption of remote working tools, the physical location of tech workers has become less of a critical factor. In a globalized culture, the ability to manage different time zones is more important than physical presence. The mindset shift towards remote work has been happening for the past two to three years, and the current situation with the ongoing pandemic is only accelerating this trend.

Impact on New H1-B Visa Resources

With the surge in COVID-19 cases and recent BLM demonstrations across the country, it is questionable whether anyone is planning to come to the USA at all. On June 24, 2020, there were 123,000 people dead from the virus, which is a significant concern. Moreover, the ongoing chaos may deter potential immigrants. New H1-B visa holders are typically expected to arrive in the US starting from October 2020, and the conditions they would face at that time may deter them. A second wave of COVID-19, the flu season, and the wildfires in Southern California, as well as snow in the east coast, could be challenging. The political and social tensions around the November election are also at a peak. The initial two to three months in the US can be tough as individuals must adjust to life without a Social Security Number, Driver's License, and a credit card. The current situation with the ongoing chaos makes it even more difficult.

Overall, I do not believe that the H1-B visa changes will have a significant impact on the tech industry or individuals at the ground level. Unemployed individuals from other sectors may not receive any relief, and big companies will most likely oppose the executive order on principle, while quietly shipping jobs outside the US.

Conclusion

One potential drawback of the H1-B visa changes is that current visa holders may not travel outside the USA in the next six months. Additionally, visa holders who were already traveling for visa stamping or personal reasons may face challenges in returning.