The Future of US Presidential Elections: Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Gone are the days when the US presidential elections of 2020 could have seen a contested outcome. Joe Biden emerged victorious under a complex political landscape, setting a new course for the nation. This article delves into the factors influencing the future of US presidential elections, specifically analyzing the support for Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Evolved Political Sentiment

While the political situation has remained largely stable, predictive analyses suggest a clear trajectory favoring Joe Biden. The question of whether President Biden can effectively counter the militant actions of hostile nations such as Iran, Yemen, Lebanon, and their proxies like Hezbollah, Houthi, and Hamas through nuclear means is debatable. Such measures, if even considered, could significantly alter the political and international landscape. However, for now, the situation remains as it is, with more time to assess the impact.

Building the Case for Joe Biden's Potent Support

To comprehend the extent of support for President Joe Biden, we can examine voter behavior through a concentric circles analogy:

Begin with a large circle representing all individuals who voted for Trump in 2016 simply because he was the Republican nominee. This group was sizable.

Nestled within this larger circle is a smaller one: those who voted for Trump in 2020 due to his personal abuse of power, the economic collapse, and mishandling of the pandemic. This group was significantly reduced from the initial 2016 supporters.

Further nested is a smaller circle: those who voted for Trump in 2024, despite his attempts to steal the 2020 election and his actions that nearly led to the death of his Vice President. This group is even smaller.

Inside this circle is an even smaller one: those who continued to support Trump even after he faced indictments on over 100 felony charges. This number is significantly lower.

Finally, a minuscule circle: those who are still willing to support Trump after his conviction of 34 felonies, with more crimes and scandals likely to surface in the coming period.

Conversely, consider another set of circles representing the alternative voting base:

The first circle includes everyone who opted for a candidate other than Donald Trump in 2016. This group was definitively larger than the initial Trump voters due to the dissatisfaction with his leadership.

Surrounding that circle is a slightly larger one: those who did not vote for Trump in 2020. The support for Biden from the 2016 non-Trump voters significantly bolstered his base.

The outermost circle signifies those who will not vote for Trump in 2024, reflecting a growing disapproval of his actions and policies.

Given this demarcation, it's plausible that Biden could secure victories in all states, demonstrating a broad and sustained support base.

Conclusion

The future of the US presidential elections is clear: efforts to retain support for Donald Trump are waning. In contrast, Joe Biden's coalition is growing, driven by multiple factors including trust, policy alignment, and vision for the nation.