The Future of Russian Politics: Change or Continuation Under Putin?

The upcoming election in Russia in 2024 is anticipated, with fears that Putin will maintain his dominance in the political landscape. Many question if there will be real change once he leaves office, if and when that happens. To understand this complex situation, it is crucial to explore the current political dynamics, potential changes, and the impact of a feedback loop in the political system.

Does Putin's Regime Have a Will to Change?

The Belarus experience of 2020 demonstrates that the mere will of the people is insufficient for change. What matters more is the political system itself. This system must be designed to use public opinion as a negative feedback loop, ensuring it remains in touch with reality. By doing so, organizations can endure even if some individuals lose power. Building such a post-revolutionary system requires being proactive and inclusive, rather than suppressing all opponents.

Evidence suggests that many regimes succeed through suppression, but this often results in shorter-term stability. The question remains: which regimes work the longest in the long-term? For any political system, maintaining a negative feedback loop is essential for sustainability. Without this, the system risks self-destruction at the point of no return. Violence, while sometimes used, is an unreliable option and merely results in an unstable situation with opposing forces forming.

Elections and Electoral Manipulation

It is worth noting that even if Putin loses in the 2024 election, he would still be positioned to manipulate the outcome in his favor. He can choose to only include the percentage of Russians who voted for him, potentially reaching figures as high as 70%, 80%, or 90%. This control over the electoral process highlights the lack of democratic elements in Russian governance. The country has not been truly democratic for a long time.

President Putin's ability to alter the legal framework to stay in power indefinitely has been well-documented. He once changed the law to allow consecutive presidential terms, thereby securing his prolonged rule. This raises the question of whether Russia ever was an actual democracy. From a factual standpoint, Russia lacks the core elements of democracy.

The Future of Russian Politics: Hope or Aristocracy?

Russian citizens are grappling with the future. While some express support for Putin, suggesting that over 90% of Russians back him, others are looking for change. The reality is that young Russians are often more critical of the current leadership and are influenced by the global trend towards democratic values. Some view Russia as a special democracy, with a population of 1 billion and a major contributor to global stability, while others see the potential for a significant shift towards a more democratic and inclusive political system.

Conclusion

The future of Russian politics hangs in the balance. While Putin is likely to stay at the helm, the potential for change once he leaves office cannot be dismissed. For any transition to be successful, the political system must be fundamentally redesigned to include negative feedback loops, ensuring long-term stability and the well-being of the Russian people.