The Future of Mars Colonization: SpaceX's Vision and the Accessible Frontier

Elon Musk's ambitious vision of space travel has captured public fascination and debate. With the aim of making space travel accessible to the average person, SpaceX is striving to reduce the cost of a trip to Mars to the equivalent of a middle-class home. This article explores how privatized space travel could fundamentally transform access to space and whether it will create a world exclusive to the wealthy on Mars.

Reduction of Travel Costs: A Step Towards Accessibility

Elon Musk has expressed confidence that tickets to Mars will one day cost less than 500,000, a price point he believes will make space travel accessible to the middle class. While privatized space travel is still a costly endeavor, those costs are expected to diminish over time, much like other technological advancements that have become more affordable with innovations and improvements.

Historical Precedents for Affordability

Looking at historical examples, cost reductions in air travel illustrate how previously luxurious and expensive modes of transport can become commonplace. Air travel, once a privilege for the wealthy, is now a regular mode of transportation due to technological advancements and increased competition. Similarly, televisions have evolved through various stages of luxury to become a standard household item, and advances in technology have made them more accessible to the masses.

The same trajectory can be seen in computing, where personal computers once considered luxuries are now integral to everyday life. These trends suggest that while space travel is currently expensive, technological progress and increased competition could make it more affordable in the future.

Current Progress and Future Plans

SpaceX is already making strides towards this goal. In 2019, suborbital flights of the Star Hopper and the two Star Ships were set to launch. By 2020, SpaceX plans to begin more extensive launches, including the Super Heavy Booster. These tests are crucial for the ultimate goal of establishing a viable and sustainable human presence on Mars.

In 2021, SpaceX aims to conduct first attempts at refueling in orbit, a necessary step for establishing a moon base and for future cargo flights to Mars. In 2022, the first passengers are likely to be experienced astronauts conducting test missions to the ISS or to the Moon in an Apollo 8 or 10 style mission. These astronauts will be employees of SpaceX, setting the foundation for future missions.

Critical Milestones Towards Mars

The next significant step involves establishing an ISRU (In Situ Resource Utilization) base on Mars to extract resources like oxygen and methane from the Martian atmosphere. This will enable the establishment of an underground base using tunneling machines, providing a safe and sustainable habitat for future astronauts. This will mark the transition from robotic missions to human missions, with the next batch of people to go being the Japanese entrepreneur and his artistic friends on the DearMoon project.

By 2023, unmanned missions may land on the Moon, with crewed visits following in 2024. Meanwhile, multiple crewed and cargo missions are planned for 2025, with work primarily done through tele-operation and robotic systems.

The Transition to Civilian Colonization

The ultimate goal is for the cost of a ticket to Mars to drop to the price of selling a middle-class home, with Musk promising an amortized pricing scale similar to airline flights today. This will make it affordable for the average person to travel to Mars, with different price tiers to cater to various experiences and comfort levels.

However, the timeline for full civilian colonization is more distant. After four crewed flights around 2032, when the base has grown to over 200 people, the real civilian settlers will arrive. By this time, the cost will have plummeted to make Mars accessible, with opportunities for civilians to join the adventure of Mars exploration and colonization.

Impact of Starships: A Game-Changer

One of the key innovations that will significantly reduce the cost is the Starship itself, capable of carrying up to 100 to 300 people. This larger capacity means that future missions could include more passengers and resources, making the overall cost per person more affordable. The Starship could in itself be used for a one-time, once-in-a-lifetime trip to the moon or even in the cis-lunar belt for a lower cost than current cruise ship prices.

By embracing the potential of larger-scale space travel, SpaceX aims to democratize access to space, making it a real possibility for the average person rather than a luxury for the wealthy.

The steps SpaceX is taking today indicate a future where space travel is no longer the exclusive domain of governments or the ultra-wealthy. With continued innovation and dedication to reducing costs, the dream of Martian colonization could become a reality within our lifetimes, and perhaps even sooner than many expect.