The Future of Hydrogen-Powered Vehicles: Beyond Passenger Cars

While the prospects for hydrogen-powered passenger vehicles in the mass market appear bleak, the potential for hydrogen in heavy transportation and other sectors remains promising. This article explores why hydrogen vehicles are still relevant and how they might shape the future of sustainable transport.

Current State of Mass-Market Passenger Hydrogen Cars

Current global market trends for mass-market hydrogen passenger vehicles (Hyundai and Toyota) are not promising. Only two manufacturers remain, each with one model of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (HFCEV). Combined, their annual sales are a fraction of what Tesla produces in just a few hours. This decline is supported by steep discounts and free fuel, but these measures are not sustainable in the long term.

The hydrogen fueling infrastructure is also deteriorating worldwide. For instance, the Southern Hemisphere currently has no publicly accessible hydrogen refueling stations. This infrastructure gap coupled with the declining sales of hydrogen passenger vehicles suggests that hydrogen cars are not a practical solution for individual use.

Transition to Heavy Vehicles and Other Sectors

However, hydrogen’s potential lies in sectors where higher fuel requirements and stringent emission regulations make the technology more feasible. By 2030, hydrogen may play a significant role in various modes of transportation, including heavy trucks, buses, and trains. Additionally, hydrogen could be used in commercial shipping and aviation.

Our analysis predicts that demand for low-carbon hydrogen from transport could reach 6 TWh by 2030. Governments around the world are promoting zero-emission powertrains through stringent climate targets. Hydrogen cars, along with electric vehicles (EVs), are seen as key solutions for greener and more sustainable mobility.

Challenges in Adopting Hydrogen in the Transportation Sector

Despite the growing momentum, challenges remain in the large-scale production of low-carbon and green hydrogen. The competitiveness of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) depends on the price of fuel cells, the refueling infrastructure, and the availability of low-carbon hydrogen. Making headway in the private transport sector will require overcoming these obstacles.

In sectors like heavy duty logistics, where energy-intensive operations are common, FCEVs can offer significant advantages. For example, hydrogen fuel cell trucks and buses can benefit from pre-established refueling routes and schedules. FCEVs in logistics and agriculture can reduce operational costs and environmental impacts.

Commercial and Agricultural Sector Potential

Hydrogen-powered forklifts and agricultural vehicles are already showing promise. In areas where hydrogen is available on-site, such as logistics and steel production plants, these vehicles can offer a sustainable alternative to conventional mobile equipment. The demand for hydrogen in these sectors is considerable due to the necessity of managing heavy equipment for extended periods in enclosed spaces, which is unsuitable for battery-powered solutions.

To overcome current challenges, it is crucial to reduce the cost of hydrogen at the point of use. One approach is to build hydrogen refueling stations that cater to captive fleets operating in hub-and-spoke systems, ensuring high utilization and infrastructure development. This strategy can help kick-start the hydrogen refueling network.

Conclusion

While the future of hydrogen-powered passenger vehicles in the mass market seems pessimistic, hydrogen’s potential in heavy transportation and other sectors is substantial. Green hydrogen is a key enabler for a sustainable future. Continued advancements in research, global initiatives, and infrastructure development will play a critical role in determining the trajectory of hydrogen vehicles in the coming years.

To learn more about hydrogen vehicles and our hydrogen mobility solutions, visit our website.