The Future of 6G Technology: Is It Really on the Horizon?

When the hype surrounding 5G begins to subside due to its shortcomings, the next big buzzword will undoubtedly be 6G. But is 6G truly on the horizon, or is it nothing more than a distant dream?

Understanding 6G Technology

First, let's clear the air regarding 6G technology. It's a concept that has not yet found its way into reality, even in the wildest dreams of optimistic tech visionaries. Unlike IEEE, the 6G concept is not officially recognized by any governing body. Instead, this concept is rooted in the work of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and its radio section (ITU-R).

The term "Generations" in the context of wireless technology is entirely owned by the ITU-R. They have the authority to declare and regulate new generations, such as 3G, 4G, and 5G, based on the need and technological advancements. The ITU-R sets out precise standards for these technologies, including compliance testing procedures and criteria, which are denoted as IMTxxxx (International Mobile Telecommunications).

Behind the Scenes: The Development of 5G

The standards for these technologies are developed by the 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project), a collaboration among various regional organizations. For 5G, the 3GPP has already initiated its work with the R15 standard, which is currently in the process of being tested for ITU compliance. However, to fully realize the potential of 5G, we need the 5G core network, which is not yet available anywhere in the world.

Moreover, the R15 standard is in a non-standalone mode, meaning it relies on 4G infrastructure for control and protocols. The full benefits of 5G, such as massive machine-type communication (mMTC) and ultra-reliable low-latency communication (URLLC), can only be experienced when the 5G core network is established.

Previewing 6G: Where Do We Stand?

Turning our gaze towards the realm of 6G, we can already see the groundwork being laid by the 3GPP with the anticipation of R16 and R17 releases by 2022. However, many experts, including myself, believe that R18, R19, and R20 could be part of the 5G ecosystem.

Historically, 4G has had numerous standard releases, such as R8, R9, R10, R11, R12, R13, and R14. Given this pattern, it is highly unlikely that 6G will be declared as a new generation before 2030, if it ever happens at all.

Beyond the dates, it is my personal belief that 5G will continue to evolve in an iterative manner, much like the internet today. By the time a truly new generation of wireless technology is needed, the term "6G" might be long forgotten. Instead, a new name will likely be found to reflect the advancements made in this period.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, while the idea of 6G is exciting, the practical implementation is still years away, if not decades. The focus should remain on optimizing and expanding the existing 5G ecosystem to meet the demands of both Internet and cellular customers. The true evolution of wireless technology lies in gradual improvements and innovation, rather than the next big thing.

By keeping a close eye on the advancements in 5G, we can better prepare for the future and ensure that our wireless networks remain at the forefront of technology.