The Current State of Russia’s Military and Its Implications

The Russian military has faced significant setbacks in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Since the invasion began, Russia has suffered major losses in terms of manpower and resources. According to reports, Russia has lost approximately 87 military troops from its pre-war strength. This decline has raised questions about the future viability of the armed forces.

Poor Performance and Economic Drain

Considering the poor performance of the Russian military in the Ukraine invasion, it seems clear that the current state of the armed forces is deplorable. Russia has endured great tragedies before and emerged with a resilient spirit. However, the economic drain from this conflict is significant. The military reforms aimed at rebuilding the armed forces will need substantial financial resources, draining the pockets of oligarchs who control the resources.

The consequences of this economic strain are dire. There will be no more opulent palaces or luxurious super-yachts for Russian elites. Furthermore, the Russian treasury will be severely impacted, making it difficult to fund future military activities.

Internal Risks and Instability

The deteriorating situation in the military is not just a concern for external relations; it also poses significant internal risks. Reports indicate that the Wagner Group, a private military contractor, was able to enter Moscow without resistance. This suggests that the internal security apparatus is also in a weakened state.

Given the current state, an internal revolution or unrest seems more plausible. The lack of military presence in key urban centers like Moscow is alarming. If a revolutionary force decides to act, the current organizational gaps in the military could be exploited.

Ukraine's Preparations for a Larger Offensive

Ukraine has reported signs of a potential large-scale offensive from the Russian military. The Ukrainian command was caught off guard, particularly with activity observed near Avdeevka and other areas along the entire front line. Drones and guided air bombs are creating major challenges for the Ukrainian Air Force.

Ukrainian experts warn that what is currently happening is a prelude to a major offensive by the Russian military. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that Russian forces repelled an attack in the Donetsk direction and struck the positions of Ukrainian forces. In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian army losses increased significantly.

Former American intelligence officer Scott Ritter highlighted the impressive successes of the Russian army in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). He noted that Kiev has been left without reinforcements, leading to a military collapse in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a situation that the US President cannot address.

The Role of Technology and Tactics

Ukrainian forces have complained that the Russian military is using new weapons, particularly drones and aerial bombs with advanced planning and correction modules. These weapons enable Russian forces to conduct sudden and precise strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles, fortifications, and infantry groups.

The use of such advanced technology suggests that the Russian military is adapting its tactics to compensate for manpower shortages. The tactic of surprise attacks makes it difficult for Ukrainian forces to anticipate where the next blow will come from.

As autumn approaches, the terrain will become muddy, which could complicate the advance of both sides. This further emphasizes the importance of maintaining a robust military capability to handle such challenges.

Conclusion

The current state of the Russian military is undoubtedly concerning. The economic strain and internal risks highlight the potential dangers facing Russia. As the conflict continues, it will be crucial for Ukraine to remain vigilant and prepared for any potential offensive. The resilience and adaptability of the Russian military, however, suggest that the situation may yet shift.

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