The Axis Powers Expansion: How Would Spain, Portugal, and Turkey Have Impacted World War II?

Imagine a scenario where Spain, Portugal, and Turkey joined the Axis Powers during World War II. How would this have altered the course of the war? Let's explore the potential impacts, focusing on the strategies and implications of each country's involvement.

Introduction to Potential Scenarios

The decision of Spain, Portugal, and Turkey to join the Axis Powers would have had far-reaching consequences. These countries held strategic positions that could have potentially altered the dynamics of the conflict. However, the timing and location of such an alliance would have been critical. This article will examine the most likely short-term and long-term impacts of such an expansion.

Turkey: The Potentially Largest Ally

Early 1941 - North Africa and the Middle East: If Turkey had entered the Axis Powers in early 1941, it would have dramatically altered the situation in North Africa and the Middle East. At that time, the British were struggling to maintain control in these regions. The strategic entry of Turkish forces would have significantly weakened the Allies and potentially driven the British out of these areas.

Northward Influence and Russia: While it is unclear how far north Turkey could have pushed into Russia, a presence on the southern borders would have provided a significant threat. This move would have added another layer of pressure on the Soviet Union from the south, making the war on the Eastern Front more challenging for the Allies.

Spain: Digging Out from the Spanish Civil War

Impact on the Mediterranean: Spain, which was still recovering from the Spanish Civil War, would likely have made a significant impact on the Mediterranean theater. With its decent-sized army, Spain could have turned the Mediterranean into an Axis zone, driving the British out of North Africa and the Middle East.

Invading Spain: Assuming that this wasn't enough to knock the UK out of the war, the Allies would likely have invaded Spain before invading France. Given the British position in North Africa, a combined Axis and Spanish force would have made this invasion more difficult. The invasion of Spain might have occurred as late as 1943, or it could have happened earlier.

Portugal: A Tough Prediction

Diplomatic Tensions and Azores: Portugal faced a complex diplomatic situation with the Germans, the British, and the Americans from 1941 onward. If Portugal had not taken these stances, there is a high likelihood that the Americans would have invaded the Azores in 1942. The Azores were crucial as a forward operation base against German U-boats in the Caribbean and southern waters.

Invading Portugal: Given Portugal's geographical and military position, it is almost certain that the Allies would have invaded Portugal if the British had not done so. Portugal's lack of military defense capabilities made it a prime target. The primary goal of invading Portugal would have been to establish a strong base from which to project power and thwart any potential Axis advances.

Conclusion

The hypothetical entry of Spain, Portugal, and Turkey into the Axis Powers during World War II would have dramatically reshaped the conflict. While each country's impact could be assessed separately, the combined effect of these three nations would have been significant. The potential outcomes, including the potential threat to the British in the Middle East, the strategic control of the Mediterranean, and the potential invasion of Portugal by the Allies, highlight the complex and interconnected nature of the war's strategic landscape.

Understanding these scenarios can provide valuable insights into the strategies and decisions made during World War II. It also underscores the importance of strategic alliances and the unintended consequences of diplomatic maneuvering.