Tesla's Hydrogen Truck Order: A Missed Opportunity or Future Potential?

Recently, a significant order of 5000 hydrogen-powered fuel cell trucks was placed, prompting a discussion on whether this order will make Tesla accelerate its battery-powered semi-truck plans. However, the reality of hydrogen fuel infrastructure and the economics involved pose significant challenges.

Where does Tesla Stand in Europe?

Tesla currently has no direct plans for Europe, and hydrogen fuel is primarily available in California, with just 43 filling stations in the state. A couple of stations are located in New York, but the infrastructure required to support 2-5 million filling stations would be immensely costly. Moreover, hydrogen fuel is expensive, with a cost of 16 euros per kilogram, and it yields 7.9 miles per kilogram compared to 6 miles per gallon of diesel, making it less efficient at the current price.

Tesla's Current Orders and Future Aspirations

Tesla has received orders for 798 units, primarily from large companies with a potential for more orders in the future. Tesla has already installed megachargers, with each potentially costing less than 500,000 euros. Additionally, Tesla needs many trucks for their intrabrand transportation of batteries from Nevada to Fremont. The logistical challenge of charging long-haul trucks with current battery technology, especially during the lunch break, places additional pressure on Tesla to develop efficient solutions.

Hydrogen vs. Electric: A Comparative Analysis

The production of hydrogen is energy-intensive and expensive. Producing 1 kg of hydrogen requires 39 kWh of electricity under ideal conditions, and a typical operational figure is 48 kWh per kg. For electric cars, 48 kWh can power a vehicle close to 150 miles. When considering the energy needed to compress, store, and transport hydrogen, the energy efficiency gets further compromised. The transportation of hydrogen via trucks, ships, or pipelines adds a significant energy burden, and rural or remote locations would require expensive storage solutions.

The Economic and Logistical Challenges

The cost of shipping hydrogen is also a significant factor. A typical liquid tanker-based station delivery cost is approximately 11 euros per kg at 450 kg per day, and it is projected to be around 8 euros per kg at 1000 kg per day. This cost would translate to substantial expenses at retail stations, making it less economically viable in the short to medium term.

Future Prospects of Tesla in the Trucking Industry

Despite the challenges, Tesla is not idle in the development of electric semi-trucks. Research and development processes have been ongoing, and the company is likely to see significant advancements in the coming years. My personal guess is that Tesla will have a significant number of trucks on the road within two years, but the battery supply issue remains a critical constraint.

Considering the infrastructure limitations and costs, it seems that Tesla is more focused on progressing with its battery-powered semi-trucks, leveraging the existing battery supply and infrastructure, which offers more practical and cost-effective solutions in the near term.