Safety in Future Space Travel: Towards a Safer Journey into the Cosmos

The concept of space travel inherently carries a level of risk, much like how automobiles and airplanes pose safety concerns in their respective domains. As we embark on a journey to make space travel safer in the future, it is crucial to understand the current landscape, the progress being made, and the challenges that lie ahead.

Current Risks and Challenges

Traditional forms of space travel, such as the Space Shuttle, underscore the inherent dangers involved. A major failure during a mission, whether it be from the lack of fuel or an engine malfunction, could result in catastrophic outcomes with little chance of survival for the crew or passengers. This reality extends beyond just routine operations, implying that even highly advanced and engineered spacecraft can face significant risks.

Future Developments and Predictions

Looking forward, it is projected that within the next two decades, space travel will experience a significant transformation. Multiple sub-orbital, reusable rockets, such as Blue Origin's New Shepard and Virgin Galactic's Spaceship 2, will become available for commercial travel. These vehicles are designed to operate under airline-like regulations, ensuring safety through reliability and stringent testing.

The key to achieving safer space travel lies in the transition from expendable launchers to reusable ones. SpaceX's Starship/Super Heavy encompasses this vision, aiming to undergo hundreds of flight cycles, significantly enhancing the reliability of space launches. By ferrying cargo and propellant for in-orbit refueling, these rockets will ultimately pave the way for passenger-carrying missions.

Initial projections estimate that SpaceX Starship/Super Heavy could take off in 2020, marking a pivotal moment in the history of space exploration. If the system proves successful, space travel could become 'safe' by around 2040, surpassing the 60-year safety improvement seen in commercial aviation. The incremental progress and lessons learned from operational air travel will guide and accelerate the improvements in the space industry.

Measuring Safety: Degrees of Reliability

When evaluating the safety of space travel, it is important to consider it in degrees rather than as an absolute. Just as cars, despite annual fatalities, continue to evolve and improve, space travel will similarly advance with each successful mission and iteration. While the SpaceShipTwo project by Virgin Galactic may eventually be considered ‘safe enough’ to fly, the sobering truth remains that accidents can and do happen in any technological domain.

Even the most reliable systems face potential risks, such as crosswinds, failed hydraulic lines, or engine burn-through. The concept of a 'safety margin' provides a balance between perfection and practicality, ensuring that despite the best efforts, complete safety cannot be guaranteed. However, as technology and experience advance, the margin for error narrows, thereby enhancing the overall safety of future spaceflights.

Conclusion

As humanity continues to push the boundaries of space exploration, the goal of making space travel safer remains a significant and achievable ambition. Through ongoing innovations, strict regulations, and a relentless pursuit of reliability, the future of space travel holds great promise. While challenges persist, the journey towards a safer and more accessible space exploration is already underway.