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Marijuana Legalization: Will It Boost Biden or Trump in the Upcoming Elections?

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With the 2020 US elections on the horizon, the discussion around marijuana legalization has come to the forefront. Both former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Joe Biden have made their stances known, but the real question remains: would supporting federal marijuana legalization help solidify their positions in the upcoming November vote?

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President Biden: A Strong Advocate for Cannabis

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Biden has already taken a significant step towards supporting the legalization of marijuana on a federal level. As early as 2020, he pushed to get marijuana reclassified from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug, paving the way for more research and eventually full federal legalization. This move has already earned him the support of the cannabis industry and advocates across the country. If a legalization bill were to be presented to him, it is highly likely that he would sign it, as he has more vice presidential experience with cannabis policy than any other president in recent history.

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His push to reschedule marijuana would enable the kind of research that politicians have long been calling for but have been unable to conduct due to the plant's federal classification. This action alone would significantly impact the public perception of the Democratic candidate and provide a campaign boost by gaining the support of younger voters and those who have previously been marginalized in political discourse.

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President Trump: Skeptical and Unlikely to Change Stance

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Contrary to Biden's advocacy, Trump has been historically against the legal use of marijuana, often calling it a 'dangerous' drug that can 'make people retarded.' During his term, he did not campaign on the issue, nor did he push for any changes in federal marijuana policy. Given his unpredictable nature as a campaigner, it is conceivable that he might consider promising to legalize marijuana or cracking down on its use to appeal to certain interest groups. However, it is unlikely that such a position would be taken seriously as part of a serious policy platform.

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According to experts, a commitment to legalizing marijuana that could not be kept would be a trick played on voters, likely reducing his credibility rather than increasing it. Since Trump's base remains steadfast in their support, and he has consistently worked to strengthen his position, a move on marijuana legalization would likely have little impact on their vote. Biden, on the other hand, who lacks a solid base, might face a bit more voter fallout from such a change in stance, but overall, the difference in impact would be minimal.

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Young Voters and the Impact of Legalization

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The marijuana legalization position could potentially gain support from younger voters, especially those who are primarily focused on other issues such as healthcare, climate change, and social justice. By shifting the policy stance towards legalization, both candidates could appeal to a wider demographic. However, it's important to note that the decision to vote is often influenced by a complex web of factors, and while a marijuana legalization push might help, it is not a guaranteed win.

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Legalization vs. Referendum and the Democratic Control

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Another critical consideration is the method of legalization. In some states, changes to marijuana policies are made through referendums, while others are managed by state commissions. Both approaches have their merits and drawbacks. It is argued that a commission of state could provide a more consistent and fair approach, avoiding the potential pitfalls of direct democratic participation.

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The idea that Democrats must hold control to successfully implement changes is a point of contention. Historically, public policy debates involve a tripartite system, known as Trias Politica, which includes the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government. Attempts to force a particular policy through one branch alone can lead to inefficiencies and potential failings. A more balanced approach, involving all branches, might be more effective in solving complex problems like drug policy.

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Ultimately, the decision to legalize marijuana on a federal level remains a complex issue with significant implications for both candidates. While it could potentially boost voter support in certain segments of the electorate, the overall impact on the election results may be smaller than initially anticipated.