Is the New Fighter Design by the US Air Force a Manned Version of Current Drones?

Recent claims and articles about the potential development of a new fighter design by the US Air Force have raised significant debate. With the advanced capabilities of current drones like the RQ-170 and X-47B, the question of whether the new design will be a manned version of these existing platforms is one that garners considerable interest. However, the assertion that a new fighter design could transition from concept to a flying prototype in just one year needs thorough scrutiny, especially when drawn from sources such as popular magazines like Popular Mechanics.

Technological and Developmental Realities

The idea that the defense sector can achieve the leap from concept to a flying prototype in such a short timeframe (a mere year) is highly implausible, as evidenced by history and technological constraints. The Air Force's next-generation fighter, referred to as the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) project, is a complex endeavor that involves numerous challenges and refinements to achieve optimal performance. Such a rapid development timeline would arguably be unrealistic, requiring a tremendous amount of testing and validation at each stage of development.

Focus on Prototyping and Manufacturing

A more plausible interpretation is that the procurement effort is emphasizing a rapid prototyping and manufacturing process that leverages existing technologies and methodologies. The core objective is to quickly create functional prototypes using the best available technologies, while avoiding technologies that are not yet mature or cost-effective. This approach allows for iterative development, where real aircraft are built, tested, and improved upon in a methodical manner. The process encourages rapid prototyping and learning from failures. This ensures that the development of the aircraft is manageable in terms of both costs and timelines.

Importance of Realistic Prototyping

While some may argue that it is impossible for the Air Force to develop and manufacture aircraft as quickly and affordably as in the past due to technological advancements and increased complexity, numerous technological improvements can actually facilitate this process. For instance, advancements in materials science, digital design and simulation, and AI-driven manufacturing can significantly reduce development time and costs. These improvements make it possible for smaller teams to work independently on specific aspects of the design and integrate them efficiently.

Role of Private Sector and Startups

If established defense contractors like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman are struggling to meet the requirements, alternative solutions can be explored. Private sector companies and startups are well-positioned to provide innovative solutions if the process is managed effectively. These entities can bring fresh perspectives and new technologies to the table, potentially offering more agile and cost-effective solutions.

Conclusion: A Balanced Approach

While the idea of a new fighter design being a direct evolution of current drones is intriguing, it is essential to evaluate the claims critically. The rapid development of a new fighter in one year seems outlandish, given the complexity of such projects. Instead, the focus should be on using a structured approach to prototyping and manufacturing, leveraging the best available technologies, and ensuring that the process is cost-effective and manageable.

As the US Air Force continues to push for the next generation of air dominance, a balanced and well-rounded approach will likely yield the best results. The key will be in integrating advanced technologies while maintaining a pragmatic and realistic focus on the practicalities of development and manufacturing.