Is Ireland Likely to Rejoin the United Kingdom or the Commonwealth?

The prospect of Ireland rejoining the United Kingdom (UK) or becoming a member of the Commonwealth again has sparked significant debate, especially among British and Irish establishment figures. However, the likelihood of such an event transpiring is highly improbable due to several political, economic, and cultural factors.

The Historical Context

Ireland has had a tumultuous relationship with the United Kingdom, marked by both union and separation. From 1801 to 1922, Ireland was part of the United Kingdom, a period characterized by considerable suffering and conflict. Following this, a armed struggle for independence led to the creation of the Irish Free State, a forerunner of the modern Republic of Ireland. Since then, the Republic of Ireland has had a tumultuous relationship with its former mother country, influenced by economic, political, and cultural factors.

The Political Infeasibility of Rejoining the UK

The idea of Ireland rejoining the UK is considered highly unlikely by both British and Irish experts. Former British Chancellor Nigel Lawson has acknowledged the futility of such a union. Many senior British establishment figures share his view, finding it improbable that a political, economic, and cultural reunion could ever be achieved.

Several recent developments highlight the current political climate that makes rejoining the UK a non-starter. For instance, the Republic of Ireland's deep economic ties with the European Union (EU) make it unlikely that it would want to sever those ties for the sake of rejoining the UK. Additionally, the economic costs of leaving the EU, including potential bankruptcy, make this scenario even more improbable.

The Financial and Security Concerns

The Republic of Ireland's current financial situation is a key factor in its decision to remain within the EU. The country cannot afford to pay the EU the full amount it owes without risking bankruptcy. This financial vulnerability makes it more advantageous for Ireland to stay in the EU, despite the challenges.

One of the main criticisms of EU membership for Ireland is the influx of migrants. The EU has been accused of dumping single Muslim migrants, unwanted by other EU countries, into Dublin. This has led to civil unrest, with locals burning down migrant accommodations. While rejoining the UK might theoretically solve this issue, it is unlikely that the British establishment would welcome such a move due to the fallout from the British-Irish conflict.

The Cultural and National Pride Factor

Despite the political and economic factors, the sentiment among the Irish population is strongly against rejoining the UK. There is a deep-seated national pride and desire for sovereignty that has been cultivated over the years. The experience of the union between Ireland and Great Britain, particularly the harsh realities of the British-Irish war of independence, has left a lasting impact on the Irish psyche.

A 2022 survey found that an overwhelming majority of Irish people do not wish to rejoin the UK. This sentiment is rooted in a desire to maintain a distinct identity and to avoid repeating a painful historical relationship.

The Possibility of Commonwealth Rejoining

While rejoining the UK is unlikely, a more feasible scenario may be Ireland's rejoining the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth membership allows for cultural and political ties without the strict political and economic obligations of the UK union. As of now, 56 countries are members of the Commonwealth, including 36 republics.

There would be no logical reason for the Republic of Ireland to be excluded from the Commonwealth. Being part of this diverse group of nations could continue to foster good international relations and maintain some of the positive aspects of the British-Irish relationship without the need for political union.

Conclusion:

While the prospect of Ireland rejoining the United Kingdom is highly improbable, the scenario of a more relaxed reunification through Commonwealth membership remains a plausible option. However, given the strong national identity and the historical context, the likelihood of any significant change in Ireland's status vis-à-vis the UK remains low for the foreseeable future.