Is Boeing Likely to Have More Crashes of the 737 MAX in the Upcoming Years?

Is Boeing likely to experience more crashes of the 737 MAX in the upcoming years? This question often arises in the wake of the two tragic incidents involving the 737 MAX, particularly the crashes of Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in 2019. Let's delve into the details and explore the reasons why such concerns are unfounded.

No More Accidents Due to Proper Handling of Emergency Procedures

It is important to note that the cause of these two unfortunate accidents was primarily the failure to follow proper emergency procedures. In each instance, the pilots failed to turn off the problematic software, the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS). One of the pilots even turned it back on, which demonstrates a critical lapse in judgment and training. Once the MCAS was properly identified as the root cause, extensive reviews were conducted, and the software was corrected to ensure it would not cause similar issues in the future.

Systematic Fixes and Pilots' Training

Following the grounding of the 737 MAX, Boeing and regulatory bodies worked tirelessly to address the systemic issues. The software has been meticulously reviewed, and all involved parties were made aware of the correct procedures. Pilot training programs have been enhanced to ensure that aviation professionals are well-prepared to handle such situations. Any experienced Boeing pilot from the 707 era to the present day will know how to stop a runaway stabilizer if faced with similar circumstances.

Statistical Evidence of Safety Improvement

The previous concerns about the 737 MAX were based on the extremely low number of flights compared to the number of accidents. Specifically, prior to the grounding, the 737 MAX production ramped up dramatically from zero to 387 planes. With 8,600 flights per week, this translated to almost 4300 flights per week for two years, totaling nearly half a million flights. This compares favorably to the safety record of the Concorde, but it is still not satisfactory given the advanced safety standards typical in the aviation industry.

Resolving MCAS Issues

If you're specifically concerned about the MCAS issues, which were the primary cause of the two aforementioned crashes, the answer is clear: no, the original issues are no longer a cause for future crashes. In the aftermath of the grounding, extensive efforts were made to correct the MCAS software and ensure that it met all safety standards. The aircraft was re-certified, and safety measures were put in place to prevent any recurrence of the same issues.

To provide a concrete example, I recently went on a short vacation and flew on a 737 MAX 8, the same model aircraft involved in the Lion Air Flight 610 crash. The flight was uneventful, and I am here to share my positive experience. This indicates that the fixes have been effective, and the 737 MAXs are now safer than ever.

Conclusion

The primary concerns surrounding the 737 MAX have been adequately addressed through comprehensive fixes and enhanced training. With the resolution of the MCAS issues and the continued vigilance of aviation professionals, it is highly unlikely that we will see similar tragedies in the future.