Is Android: iPhone :: Windows: Mac circa 1990?

The first iPhone entered the market in 2007, while the initial Android project was initiated in 2003. However, looking at the computing landscape circa 1990, the timeline is quite different. In 1990, the Macintosh and Windows were the leading operating systems, each with its own set of challenges and opportunities.

Early Days of Mac and Windows

In 1990, Macintosh models such as the Mac Classic, Macintosh IIsi, IIfx, and LC were introduced, running on Mac OS 6.0.7, which was relatively stable for its time. On the other hand, Windows 3.0 was released mid-year, signaling a significant shift in the PC market. Windows 3.0 marked a turning point, making Windows more accessible and user-friendly than its predecessor, MS-DOS. Prior to this, MS-DOS was the dominant operating system in PCs, despite its limitations.

Apple's Challenges

The Macintosh faced its own challenges in the 1990s. When Microsoft's Windows began to gain significant market share, Apple was already struggling. By 1995, when Windows began to sell well, Apple was in a dire financial state. This was not due to the success of the Mac OS, but rather due to Apple's investments in various other ventures, such as Taligent, Collidía Labs, eWorld, Pippin, and the Newton. Apple was making substantial profits from the Mac, but these profits were heavily spent on other failed projects.

Google's Current Position

Fast forward to 2010, Google had very little in common with Microsoft in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Google primarily generates revenue from advertising, not from the sale of operating systems. Moreover, Google has a track record of losing interest in products that do not directly contribute to its advertising revenue. This makes Google's commitment to Android's dominance questionable. Microsoft controlled the OEMs of DOS for over a decade before releasing Windows 3.0. In contrast, Google has minimal control over the large smartphone manufacturers and no significant track record in dealing with them. The presence of multiple platforms and versions could be a long-term hindrance to Android's success.

The App Ecosystem

The success of both Apple and Android is heavily reliant on the presence and quality of third-party applications. In the early days of the Macintosh, the availability of killer apps was crucial for its adoption. Similarly, for Android to survive and thrive, it needs to develop a strong, exclusive app ecosystem. Unless Android can create apps that aren't easily replicated by competitors, its success may be short-lived.

The Role of the Internet

The internet has transformed how mobile operating systems operate. Apple's tight control over its iOS platform, including network-based updates, the iTunes store, and free content and app delivery, gives it a significant advantage. Android, on the other hand, needs to adapt quickly to these changes. The internet has made it easier for Apple to manage updates and push content out to users, which is a critical factor in user retention and satisfaction.

The Future of Android

The question remains: Is Android just a passing fad on the way to the next great platform for smartphones? Will Android survive the iPhone 5, and what about Microsoft's next smartphone venture? It's difficult to predict the future, but one thing is certain: the next few years will be fascinating to observe.