Exploring Alternatives to SpaceX and Blue Origin: The Cost of Orbit Without Rockets

The only company that has ever achieved orbital human spaceflight is SpaceX. All other human spaceflights have been conducted by governments. SpaceX and a few others like Northrop Grumman and Boeing handle cargo missions but the rest have been government-operated. So if you are a government, you have the resources and expertise to achieve this, although it will still be incredibly costly.

Is it Possible?

Yes, it is possible to fly cargo or humans into orbit without using rockets from SpaceX or Blue Origin. But it's extremely challenging. You would need to either build your own rocket or partner with another private or governmental space agency capable of achieving orbital flight.

Development Costs:

If you have to build your own orbital rocket, the costs can be enormous. Development costs range from $5 billion to $20 billion, which includes research and development, prototyping, extensive testing, human-rating certification if carrying humans, and manufacturing. The exact figure depends on the complexity of the design and the level of expertise of the engineers available.

Using existing expertise and infrastructure can lower costs. But even then, you're looking at a minimum of $5 billion to develop a reliable and safe human-rated orbital launch system. A slightly lower cost can be achieved if it's cargo-only. So, even the most efficient approach can be quite expensive.

Using Established Spaceflight Companies:

To put things into perspective, flying cargo to orbit with SpaceX, such as using a Falcon 9, costs approximately $50 million to $62 million per launch, depending on the payload size and mission specifics. Human spaceflight with SpaceX's Crew Dragon costs approximately $60 million per astronaut. These prices are drastically cheaper compared to developing your own launch system from scratch, thanks to reusable technology and extensive experience in orbital launches.

In Summary:

Developing your own orbital rocket system for human or cargo missions is feasible but extremely expensive, costing between $5 billion and $20 billion if done independently. If you opt to fly with established companies like SpaceX, the cost per cargo mission drops to around $50-62 million per launch, and human flights cost about $60 million per astronaut. These options are much more practical for most.