Evaluating the Accuracy of Current Climate Models: Insights from CERES Data

Current climate models, driven by various human and natural factors, often underestimate the accuracy of their predictions. This article explores whether the Earth’s current climate models may be inaccurate, examining the role of CO2 as a cooling agent rather than a warming agent, the impact of solar insolation, and the role of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. Additionally, it utilizes data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) to refine our understanding of the Earth's energy balance.

The Role of CO2 and the Earth's Rotation

Contrary to common belief, the inertia centrifugal force of the Earth's 24-hour rotation period transforms CO2 into a cooling agent without a warming effect. This is in stark contrast to Venus, where CO2 forms a high-pressure layer with 92 times the atmospheric surface pressure on Earth, leading to a surface temperature of around 465°C (738 K). Utilizing the ideal gas law, converting this temperature to degrees Kelvin, and dividing by 92 provides a comparison to Earth's CO2 dynamics.

Understanding Climate Models and Projections

Computer models projecting future climate scenarios are based on the expected behavior of humans and the latest understanding of physics, chemistry, and thermodynamics. These models assume a near-black-body surface absorbing solar shortwave radiation (SWR) and radiating outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) based on internal stored energy. The relationship between the total radiated surface energy and the effective global temperature can be established using the Stefan-Boltzmann equation.

Present climate models consider three primary drivers for changes in global effective temperature: solar insolation, greenhouse gases (GHGs), and aerosols. However, the CERES data has provided insights that challenge the accuracy of these models, particularly in the equilibrium energy flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA).

Energy Imbalance and Its Drivers

The CERES data, such as energy fluxes at the TOA, indicates an increasing energy imbalance. For the TOA energy imbalance, an energy difference between incoming solar energy and outgoing longwave radiation should equal zero in a balanced system. This analysis shows a positive imbalance, suggesting a warming trend. Data normalized to the year 2000 reveals an increasing imbalance of approximately 1.4 W/m2 for 2024, translating to a surface temperature increase of about 0.27°C.

By separating the data into all sky and clear sky conditions, the role of clouds, solar insolation, and reflected shortwave radiation (SWR) can be examined. While solar insolation remains relatively constant, SWR reflection is reducing, indicating changes in aerosol concentrations and possibly vegetation or surface changes.

Clouds, Greenhouse Effect, and Solar Insolation

The greenhouse effect (GHE) is the restriction of energy flux from the surface to space. CERES data reveals that LWR at the TOA for clear sky conditions is restricted by about 33 W/m2, while the all sky condition shows a restriction of about 40 W/m2. This analysis suggests that clouds slow cooling and enhance the GHE.

The net effect of the GHE on the energy imbalance is an increase of about 2.75 W/m2. Data from CERES shows that between 2000 and 2024, the Earth's energy imbalance at the TOA has increased by 1.2 W/m2, with the GHE playing a significant role.

Conclusion

Overall, the analysis of CERES data highlights the need for further refinement of current climate models. The role of CO2, solar insolation, aerosols, and clouds must be more accurately accounted for. This study underscores the importance of continuous monitoring and data analysis for improved projections of future climate conditions.

Further research using CERES data and other advanced methodologies is necessary to enhance the accuracy of climate models and predict climate changes with greater precision.