Can a Modern US Carrier Fleet Be Destroyed as Quickly as in Millennium Challenge 2002?

The hypothesis that a modern United States carrier fleet could be destroyed as swiftly as in Millennium Challenge 2002 is fundamentally flawed. LTG Van Riper, who led the opposing force in that simulation, had an intimate knowledge of U.S. Armed Forces capabilities, its strategy, and the rules of the game, which allowed him to exploit any weaknesses. In a modern context, Iran would not be able to replicate such an advantage.

Understanding the Context

The nearly 20-year-old simulation has limited relevance to the current U.S. military strategy, especially in a confrontation with Iran. While the U.S. military leadership may have a healthy respect for the adversary's ability to hurt them, our technological edge, including electronic warfare, missile defense, and stealth capabilities, is vastly superior to what was available in 2002.

Iranian Capabilities and Limitations

Iran's air force, which was already aging in 2002, has become even more outdated. The pre-Revolutionary American F-14 aircraft are now close to 50 years old. While Iran has acquired modern air defense systems like the S-400, these are likely not to match the advanced air defense systems retained by Russia. Moreover, during the Syrian conflict, the Russian S-400 system performed poorly, raising doubts about its effectiveness.

U.S. Strategic Superiority

The idea that Iran would launch hundreds of missile boats and swarm to sink an American aircraft carrier battle group is highly unlikely. Any such attempt would likely be detected well in advance, and the American Navy would use these threats as valuable target practice. In a realistic scenario, Iran would not be allowed the initiative, and their missile sites, airfields, and radar stations would be neutralized well before a carrier battle group approached.

Historical Context and Adversary Analysis

The quote, "Generals always fight the last battle," is often attributed to Clausewitz, emphasizing the tendency for military leaders to focus on what they have previously experienced. This sentiment holds true not only for generals but for admirals as well. The public reaction to Millennium Challenge was one of denial, indicating that the U.S. Navy may not have learned from this exercise.

However, just because a new technology is impressive, it doesn't mean it will affect carriers in the same way as other assets. The traditional idea that carriers are too large to be destroyed is akin to IBM's belief that the mainframe computer wouldn't be eclipsed by personal computers. Technology and strategy evolve, and what seemed invincible in the past may no longer be so in the future.