Can Iran and the U.S. Reach a Nuclear Deal? Unlikely and Complex Obstacles

The question of whether Iran and the U.S. can reach a nuclear deal is far from hopeful. The current geopolitical landscape is characterized by deep-rooted mistrust, complex interests, and a myriad of diplomatic challenges that make the prospect of an agreement exceedingly unlikely.

The Dominance of the Israel Lobby

The role of the Israel lobby, a powerful force in U.S. politics, cannot be understated in shaping the U.S. stance on Iran. For instance, the lobby paid a significant amount to secure a victory in a primary election, demonstrating their substantial influence. This control extends to Congress, enabling figures like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address it almost as an authority, even likening the influence to employing employees. Such dominance has dire consequences, pushing the U.S. into a diplomatic disadvantage. Legislation and policy decisions are often swayed by the pro-Israel lobby's interests, leading to stringent policies against Iran and limited support for dialogue and negotiation.

Unpredictability Under Trump

Under the tenure of former President Donald Trump, any possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran is viewed with skepticism. Trump's decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has left Iran few options but to pursue a more assertive course, primarily through proxy warfare. This action effectively limits the U.S.'s leverage in future negotiations and makes any agreement reached during his presidency highly unlikely. The net effect is that Iran views any potential deal with the U.S. through a lens of distrust, given the U.S.'s history of reneging on commitments.

The Biden Administration and Beyond

Evolving from the Trump presidency, Joe Biden's administration has taken steps towards diplomacy and international cooperation. However, the road to a nuclear deal remains fraught with challenges. Unilateral actions by one leader can have long-lasting repercussions, and history suggests that Iran will be skeptical of any agreement unless it feels assured about the U.S.'s commitment to uphold its terms. The ultra-nationalist factions on both sides – in the U.S. and Iran – pose significant obstacles to meaningful negotiations and any realistic progress.

Proxy War as a New Strategy

In the interim, Iran has shown a preference for engaging in proxy wars rather than directly going to war with the U.S. This strategy allows Iran to exert its influence in a manner that aligns with its long-standing military objectives. It also demonstrates a shrewd understanding of the limitations imposed by direct military confrontation, especially given the U.S.'s technological and economic advantages. The continuation of this approach suggests that a direct nuclear deal in the near future is a distant prospect.

Skepticism and Trust Issues

The core of the challenge lies in the mutual distrust between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. cannot be seen as a reliable partner, given its history of reneging on agreements. Moreover, Iran views the U.S. through the lens of a power that has acted inconsistently and in violation of commitments. These mistrust issues are compounded by the political and ideological differences that run deep between the two countries. Overcoming these issues requires a fundamental shift in the relationship, which is unlikely to occur in the immediate future.

The Path Forward

For a nuclear deal to be reached, several factors need to align. These include the need for meaningful negotiations, an end to proxy wars, and a shift in the stance of the ultra-right nationalist factions on both sides. However, the current reality paints a grim picture. Both the U.S. and Iran are locked into a cycle of tension and distrust, with little incentive for either side to make significant concessions. The involvement of third-party mediators and the international community may be necessary to facilitate these negotiations.

Conclusion

Given the historical context and the current geopolitical climate, reaching a nuclear deal between Iran and the U.S. seems highly improbable. The dominance of the Israel lobby, the actions of former President Trump, and the ultra-right nationalist factions in both countries cast significant shadows over any potential agreement. The situation remains complex and fraught with challenges, making it difficult to envision a resolution in the near future.